Saudi Arabia will account for 23.12% of Middle Eastern regional oil demand by 2014, while providing a dominant 39.37% of supply, according to the latest “Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report” from BMI released on Tuesday.
Regional oil use of 7.47 million bpd in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.64 million bpd in 2009. It should average 10.98 million bpd in 2010 and then rise to around 11.95 million bpd by 2014, the report said.
Regional oil production was 22.83 million bpd in 2001, and averaged an estimated 24.66 million bpd in 2009. It is set to rise to 27.18 million bpd by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion.
In 2001, the region was exporting an average 15.36 million bpd. This total had eased to an estimated 14.02 million bpd in 2009 and is forecast to reach 15.23 million bpd by 2014. Iraq has the region’s greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar.
By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas.
Oil consumption is set to increase by 28.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% a year towards the end of the period, by 2019 Saudi Arabia will be using 3.20 million bpd.
