By Martin Morris
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OPEC, in its latest monthly report, published Tuesday, says that while there is growing evidence of an impending upturn for the global economy, any recovery will likely be slow and patchy.
In its report it said it expects world oil demand in 2009 to contract by 1.6 mb/d (million barrels per day) to 84.1 mb/d. In 2010, global demand is forecast to return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, increasing 0.5 mb/d to stand at 84.6 mb/d.
Both figures are unchanged from the previous report.
Given the significant improvement in US consumption, OECD oil demand in August is forecast to decline by only 0.9 mb/d, up from a minus 1.8 mb/d in the previous month, while non-OECD demand is forecast to inch up by 0.7 mb/d.
In 2010, OECD oil demand is forecast to see a smaller contraction of 0.3 mb/d as US consumption returns to positive.
The report added that demand growth next year is expected to be led by China with 0.3 mb/d followed by Middle East and India with 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 is expected to average 50.8 mb/d, representing an increase of 340 tb/d (thousand barrels per day) over the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment.
In 2010, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to reach 51.2 mb/d, representing growth of 420 tb/d over the previous year.
In August, OPEC production stood at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of around 0.1 mb/d over the previous month.
