The total US oil demand on a four-week moving average ending August 28 turned positive year-on year, the first such occurrence in months, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
“EIA reported total US oil demand at 19.292 million barrels per day (b/d), up 10,000 b/d. However, that four-week moving average comparison includes preliminary and revised statistics. In addition, year-on-year comparisons are less glaring than they were earlier in 2009 since last September was the month that the global economy was on the precipice of a complete collapse, sending oil demand on a downward spiral,” Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst at Platts, reported.
However, comparing the four-week moving averages of just the preliminary weekly data, at 19.292 million b/d, US oil demand was down 1 million b/d year-on-year, a depreciation of 4.93%.
“Demand for jet and residual fuel oils were still down year-on-year, as was that for distillate. Implied demand for gasoline, propane and propylene and the “other oils” category were up year-on-year on the four-week moving average. Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the US distribution system, not actual end consumption,” Radfield explained.
Week-over-week, implied demand for gasoline and middle distillates picked-up. Gasoline demand jumped 370,000 b/d to 9.478 million b/d as product moved through the distribution system ahead of the Labor Day weekend, revealed the report.
The jump in crude inputs was enough to offset an increase of 351,000 b/d in imports to 9.576 million b/d. Of the 351,000 b/d net increase, 539,000 b/d was along the Gulf Coast while imports fell on the Atlantic Coast and in the Midwest, suggesting floating storage was brought on land as the front of the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures contract curve narrowed.
“Crude stocks edged down 372,000 barrels to 343.388 million barrels. US commercial crude stocks are 30.436 million barrels above the five-year average and 39.526 million barrels above year-ago levels, ample cushions as refiners head into fall maintenance season,” Radfield concluded.
Linda Radfield is a senior oil analyst at Platts.
