Libya will see production rise to 1.5 million barrel per day (bpd) in the next few days, and return to its pre-war level of 1.7 million bpd by the end of the year, according to National Oil Company chairman Nouri Berrouin.
Speaking to the Libya Herald, Berrouin said Libya can get back to 1.6 million bpd “by June,” and “back to normalcy of 1.7 m bpd plus by the end of the year.” As pipelines are repaired and brought on stream.
Berrouin also called for much greater involvement of the private sector in Libya’s upstream industry and beyond, and in commenting on NTC leader Mahmoud Jibril’s remark that two-thirds of Libya’s proven reserves are spent, hinted at the kind of opportunities where the private sector can add value to Libya’s current and future operations.
“Of the proven ultimate reserves, probably about two-thirds have been produced,” said Berrouin. But this reserve figure is a changing, dynamic one. Every year we have been adding more reserves than we produced. So if we carry a figure, that figure has been constant for a long time. Then we produced for years, yet the reserve figure stays constant.”
“On the other hand, there is the matter of recovery. I respect Dr Jibril’s opinion, but there may be some details he is not aware of. Our ultimate recovery rate is very low. We carry about 3%. But because of the quality of our reserves, we could add more by implementing improved techniques such as better oil recovery, by good reservoir management, by enhanced oil recovery etc.”
“For example, we could add from 5 to 10%. If we add 10 percent for example in the next few years, this means with the current levels there will be another 20 years of production.”
“We are working on that. We are going to do it. Our young people are working on that and they are going to do it…our target is to increase reserves.”
“What I see in the future — and not just in the oil sector — is that we must have the private sector very active; otherwise we are going to have a lot of problems,” said Berrouin. “The government cannot do everything. We cannot employ everybody. We expect the private sector to be so big and important that it will take care of a big portion of the economy. We will encourage the private sector. One of the conditions that hopefully will be used is that companies that employ a larger Libyan element will have a privilege.”
As part of Libya’s growth as an oil producer, Berrouin emphasised transparency.
“If you go to our NOC website, everything that we sell is published,” he said. “In terms of the type of crude, the destination, the quantities and also the pricing. Anybody can sit down and with the Brent price and work out what we sold and at what price. This was never the case in the past.”
Berrouin also paid tribute to the Libyan oil workers whose efforts have restored Libyan oil production ahead of analysts’ estimates.
