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Oil prices tumble amid Iran nuclear deal prospects

Oil prices rollercoaster as JCPOA deal days away, Russia-Ukraine situation in standstill

Oil prices slipped by more than 2% early Thursday (17 February) morning due to comments regarding the JCPOA deal.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 2% after closing above $93 a barrel on Wednesday, while Brent crude was trading down 2.6%.

Iran’s top negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani tweeted that efforts to restore the deal are “closer than ever.” However, “negotiations could still fall through,” he said.

Kani added: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Our negotiating partners need to be realistic, avoid intransigence and heed lessons of past 4 years.”

Meanwhile, French officials said that salvaging the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal is just days away. Vienna talks have been reinstated since November between Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the US.

“Crude prices remain headline driven over incremental updates due to the Ukraine situation,” said senior market analyst for OANDA Edward Moya to Oil and Gas Middle East

He added: “WTI crude is poised to eventually head higher because the oil market remains very tight but any de-escalation with Russia-Ukraine tensions or a major breakthrough with Iran nuclear deal talks could send prices sharply lower.”

Russia-Ukraine tensions have also brought instability in the oil market, with concerns over supply disruption from a major producer could push oil prices over $100 per barrel.

“Positive developments in the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are helping to calm oil prices,” said Rystad Energy AS Senior Vice President Claudio Galimberti, said in a note, the Bloomberg reported. “Although not a done deal yet, prices are sliding on news of progress and broad consensus in the talks as it could ultimately see up to 900,000 barrels a day of crude added to the market by December this year,” he added.

Oil prices had shot up earlier this month – the highest since 2014 – due to constraints in production and higher demand.

“Although high prices would in theory trigger a burst in tight oil production, acute supply chain bottlenecks, a lag between price signals and its impact on production, and winter weather-related disruptions will slow growth,” said Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research, in a statement.