The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its February report wrote that it expects world oil demand to grow by 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, reaching 96.4 mbpd and recovering almost 60% of the volume that was lost due to the pandemic in 2020. This oil demand estimate is revised down by 200,000 bpd following adjustments to historical data.
“Renewed lockdowns, stringent mobility restrictions and a rather slow vaccine roll-out in Europe have delayed the anticipated rebound until the second half of the year,” the IEA wrote.
The agency anticipates a ‘rapid stock draw’ in the second half of the year due to an expected rise in demand, with modest growth in non-OPEC supply. “That sets the stage for OPEC+ to start unwinding cuts even if producers outside the group to ramp up faster than currently projected,” the report noted.
Still, the IEA highlighted that all forecasts would be ‘highly dependent’ on the distribution and administering of vaccines, and the eventual easing of travel restrictions.Â
Global oil supply increased by 590,000 bpd to 93.6 mbpd in January on looser OPEC+ cuts.”In February, global output is set to fall as Saudi Arabia implements a sizeable voluntary cut,” the IEA wrote. “The outlook is improving for countries outside the OPEC+ alliance, with an 830 kb/d gain expected in 2021 versus a 2020 loss of 1.3 mb/d.”
OPEC members are set to hold supply levels through March (excluding Saudi Arabia with its voluntary additional 1mbpd cut), and OPEC+ ministers will meet in early March to set the policy for April.
