With the world making a global effort to shift to cleaner forms of energy, gas is often presented as a promising candidate to deliver cleaner energy. This is mainly one of the reasons why many outlooks see a rise in demand for gas to 2040 and beyond.
Electricity is the largest gas consumer in the world, making the versatile fuel instrumental in shifting the world’s electricity mix over the past fifty years. In the ‘70s, oil provided almost a quarter of the world’s electricity; in 2018, it accounted for just 3 percent. Gas, meanwhile, jumped from 12 to 23 percent even though gas only took off as a power fuel in the 1990s.
According to HE Yury Sentyurin, the third Secretary General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF): “The world will need to power its economic growth through hydrocarbons, specifically the cleaner, abundant, and cheaper natural gas, for some time to come. It is obvious that the structure of the energy mix is becoming more diversified thanks to the expansion of renewables. However, fossil fuels are projected to remain dominant, accounting for 71% in 2050.”
These remarks were echoed by HE Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister and former Energy Minister of Russia, who reiterated his belief that traditional energy sources are not going away in the next few decades. “Energy transition is coming, it’s happening, but its space will depend on a number of questions and a number of different issues. We must not discount conventional energy sources which are going to stay with us for a while yet,” he said.
These and similar themes form part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals too, for example, Goal #7 which aims to bring clean energy to all by 2030. Currently, close to a billion people around the world do not have access to electricity while over 780 million people in places such as Africa do not enjoy access to clean cooking fuel.
Nobel Laureate Chung Rae Kwon highlighted the ‘reductionist’ view of certain energy-transition proponents and reports which favour only one side of the picture.
“One issue we have not fully captured so far in the debate on energy transition is about the carbon emission from the consumption. The United Kingdom, for example, succeeded in emission reduction by 40% in the last three decades but it is based on the production side. When you calculate from the consumption side, the per-capita consumption emission of British people never changed within the last three decades,” he said.
According to the latest GECF estimates available in the organisation’s flagship publication of the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050, natural gas will become the leading source of energy in the global primary mix by mid-century, increasing its share from 23% today to 28%.
HE Angela Wilkinson, Secretary General and CEO of World Energy Council, reiterated that her message was all about “energy for humanity”. Having access to a just and fair energy transition benefits all populations of the world.
“We like to talk about technologies or resources or investments. But what we really need is an energy transition which is for people and the planet …and as HE Novak has said it’s going to take a mix of all resources to do that,” she said.
The session was moderated by Sergey Brilev, President of Global Energy Association and renowned journalist, who incidentally delivered a keynote at the GECF Gas Lecture series in April 2021 under the title of ‘Global Energy: Supporting Science and Innovation’.
