The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), as an intergovernmental coalition of 19 of the world’s leading gas producers together representing 70% of the proven natural gas reserves, 52% of gas pipeline, and 51% of LNG exports, echoes the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s recent report ‘Net Zero by 2050’.
In a recent announcement released by GECF, the coalition is convinced that natural gas, as an abundant, affordable and clean hydrocarbon source, has a central role to play in the energy transition while simultaneously supporting progress on several sustainable development dimensions including the guardianship of ecosystems, human health, and the economy.
Member countries are already demonstrating their manifold commitment to environmental stewardship by reducing emissions from their own operations and wherever they hold equity to accelerate decarbonisation. The GECF’s in-house developed Reference Case Scenario (RCS) takes into account adopted and announced national energy policies, while building its long-term assumptions, based on pragmatic assessment of policies’ implementation as well as progress in technologies that support carbon mitigation.
Based on the latest estimates in the GECF RCS, global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 24% over the next three decades, boosted by cumulative economic and population growth drivers. The only approach to achieve energy market stability, responsible and inclusive economic growth, as well as sustainable development goals, is to consider natural gas as a destination fuel that will always be an essential element in achieving a lower-carbon energy system.
While for the time being the net zero pathways rely on technologies which are not currently available in the market and that this technology challenge is further exacerbated when considering the developing countries that have no access to technologies and financial resources, other countries are actively moving away from investment in upstream gas resources which in turn can substantially affect the security of supply and prevent countries from accessing competitive and clean energy sources, such as natural gas, which is compatible with sustainable development. Prior to 2020, historical upstream investment between 2010 and 2019 was USD$571 billion worldwide, indicating a tremendous accumulative increase of 79% compared to the investment volume during the 2000s. Furthermore, $472 billion investment was made in gas transportation and trade infrastructure between 2010 and 2019, showing an increase of 67% compared to the investment made between 2000 and 2009.
An expected growth in LNG consumption in future decades worth about $10 trillion is attributed to population growth, growing economic prosperity in developing countries (e.g., China and India), favourable government regulations and actions to reduce air pollution and eliminate coal.
