In an interview with Turkey’s state news agency Anadolu, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said that the total oil production in the United States would equal that of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s combined output by 2025. He noted that oil prices could no longer be determined by the countries in the Middle East and Russia, and that US production would “completely change the balance of oil markets.”
US production, driving by the extraction of shale resources, is expected to grow by 3.7mn barrels per day (bpd) by 2023. Global production capacity is expected to grow 6.4mn bpd in the same time period.
The IEA has repeatedly emphasised the growing role that the US will play in the global energy landscape; it currently produced 11mn bpd, record levels for the nation.
While US production is expected to continue growing, OPEC and its allies will cut production in 2019 in an attempt to balance supply and demand. By comparison, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts US production to reach an average 12.1mn bpd in 2019.
It estimates US crude oil production at an average of 11.5mn bpd in November, up 150,000bpd from October. In 2018, the US averaged 10.9mn bpd, up from 9.4mn bpd in 2017.
Birol noted that the IEA expects declining oil prices and some volatility going forward, with geopolitical events adding to price uncertainty. He noted that countries with oil-based economies should diversify in order to minimise risks to their growth
