A nuclear balancing act

The Agency was established on July 1957 and for the first 20 years or so primarily occupied itself with nuclear technology and safety. However, it became a more political body thanks to its role as the United Nation’s (UN’s) watchdog for alleged clandestine nuclear programmes in several countries notably Iraq, Libya, North Korea and latterly Iran. It has run the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) since 1970.

While its detractors say this dual role to support peaceful nuclear energy use and preventing nuclear proliferation for military aims is incompatible, supporters say it would be impossible for these two functions to be carried out by separate bodies.

Established as the “Atoms for Peace” organisation within the UN, the IAEA, based in Vienna, works with member states and partners “to promote safe, secure and peaceful nuclear technologies.” It is headed by director general Mohamed El-Baradei and six deputy directors general in charge of the major departments. It is required to report annually to the UN General Assembly and, when appropriate, to the Security Council on non-compliance by states regarding safeguard obligations and matters relating to international peace and security.

Agency programmes and budgets are set by its policy making bodies – a 35-member Board of Governors and the General Conference of all member states. Financing comes from a regular budget and voluntary contributions. The regular budget in 2007 was €283.6 million with the target for voluntary contributions to the technical co-operation fund for 2007 US $80 million.

The IAEA has three main areas of work:

• As the world’s nuclear inspectorate. It verifies that safeguarded nuclear material and activities are not used for military purposes. It is also responsible for the nuclear file in Iraq as mandated by the UN Security Council;

• It helps countries upgrade nuclear safety and security and prepare for and respond to emergencies. Work is keyed to international conventions, standards and expert guidance. The main aim is to protect people and the environment from harmful radiation exposure; and

• It helps countries mobilise peaceful applications of nuclear science and technology. The work contributes to goals of sustainable development in fields of energy, environment, health, and agriculture, among others, and to cooperation in key areas of nuclear science and technology.

None of these roles are likely to diminish. For, as well as the non-proliferation aspect of its duties which has been exacerbated by recent geo-political tensions, there is also renewed interest for new power generation capacity, as part of the drive toward low carbon energy under climate change mitigation policies, as well as the replacement of ageing fleet in countries that have had nuclear reactors for several decades, not to mention interest (particularly in the Middle East) for nuclear powered electricity combined with desalination.

At the end of 2006, there were 435 nuclear power reactors in operation worldwide, representing 370 Gigawatts of generating capacity and supplying about 16% of the world’s electricity. Several countries have also recently announced plans for significant expansion, specifically China, India, Japan, Pakistan, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Korea. In addition, Argentina, France, South Africa, Ukraine and the US have expressed an intention to expand their existing programmes.

Seventeen of the 29 new reactors being built are in developing countries. India has seven under construction as part of a substantial increase in capacity by 2022, while China has four and envisages a fivefold expansion by 2020. Several Asia-Pacific nations are also considering nuclear power such as Indonesia – with two 1000 MW reactors – and Vietnam.

In November the IAEA submitted to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) a preliminary copy of the draft study of the GCC’s project for utilisation of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. GCC secretary general Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah said at the end of the OPEC Riyadh summit last month that GCC leaders would now consider the study. The programme was launched in December 2006.

November saw the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research hold a three-day event in Dubai on future Gulf energy sources including nuclear power. Undersecretary of the UAE’s Ministry of Energy, Ali Abdullah Al Owais, was quoted as saying: “According to the initial feasibility study conducted by the GCC Secretariat, it is expected that nuclear energy will enter the Arab Gulf states’ markets in 2025.” He confirmed the GCC programme envisaged nuclear for both power and water desalination.

Yet in its 50th year, it is Iran’s enrichment programme that has dominated world interest as far as the IAEA is concerned. Iran’s history with nuclear technology began in the 1950s with a research programme which was expected to see capacity installed by the end the last century but this never materialised. However, during subsequent decades a new research programme resumed and caught the interest of the IAEA notably from 2002 when Iran admitted to plans to build two enrichment facilities. (The problem is that both processes for civil nuclear power generation and military nuclear weapons involve enriched uranium, which can make it difficult to ascertain the true nature of a country’s enrichment programme.)

In 2003 it emerged that Tehran had begun testing at a pilot fuel enrichment plant. After the IAEA voiced concerns about this, Iran suspended the prorgramme and signed an additional protocol to the NPT. However, in August 2005, it resumed activities at a uranium conversion facility in Isfahan.

The IAEA (under some pressure from the US and European Union) then passed a resolution asking Iran to stop its nuclear programme but this was rejected upon which the Agency said Iran was not in compliance with the NPT.

Since then, the IAEA and Iran have been engaged in something of a stand-off and with it a flurry of activity raising nuclear’s non-peaceful profile in a manner not seen since the IAEA acted as the UN’s inspector into Iraq’s nuclear programme from the 1990s. This year Iran’s programme has dominated IAEA headlines.

El-Baradei said in November that there had been progress on a working agreed by the Secretariat and the Iranian government in August. Under this, Iran has “finally committed itself to address the outstanding issues relevant to its nuclear activities”, the Director General said. He also called on Iran to take “all the confidence-building measures called for by the UN Security Council, including the suspension of enrichment related activities,” adding: “The earlier that negotiations are resumed, the better the prospects of defusing this crisis. It is only through such negotiations that a comprehensive and durable solution can be reached, and that confidence in the future direction of Iran´s nuclear programme can be built.”

His comments were based on a report submitted to the IAEA board in November covering developments since August. The report concluded that the Agency had been able to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran. Iran had also provided the Agency with access to declared nuclear material, and the required nuclear material accountancy reports in connection with declared nuclear material and activities.

But the report warned that as, since early 2006, the Agency had has not received the type of information that Iran had previously been providing, its knowledge about the current nuclear programme was diminishing. Moreover, it emerged that Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities and also continued construction and operation of a heavy water production plant.

The IAEA said that although Iran had provided sufficient access to individuals and responded in a timely manner to questions and provided clarifications and amplifications on issues raised in the context of the work, its cooperation had been “reactive rather than proactive.” It added Iran “needs to continue to build confidence about the scope and nature of its present programme.

Confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme requires that the Agency be able to provide assurances not only regarding declared nuclear material, but, equally importantly, regarding the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.”

With the Iran issue unresolved, it is likely this will continue to dominate IAEA activity for the foreseeable future. At the same time, nuclear’s role as a low carbon form of power generation will mean there will be as much if not more demand on the Agency’s non-NPT activities. It is also trying to expand its role beyond nuclear safety, security, verification and disarmament to, as it puts it, “address the need for adequate resources to deal with such issues as hunger, disease and poverty”. It works with member states and other organisations to “contribute to sustainable strategies that help in addressing and alleviating the problems and furthering the causes of peace and development.”

As El-Baradei told the Agency’s board in November, “We are highlighting how peaceful nuclear technology can be used to address poverty, hunger and disease – crises that, regrettably, are too often given less visibility on the global stage.” But it is unlikely that these efforts, however valuable, will become the main focus of public interest in the Agency.