In June Iran’s oil production slumped to below 3 million barrels a day in for the first time since the Iran-Iraq war, to 2.96 million barrels per day.
The figure is the lowest Iran has pumped for 20 years, and puts it below Iraq, which produced 2.98 million bpd. Iran failed to provide its own production figure for June. The country produced an average 3.62 million bpd through 2011, according to OPEC data.
Iran’s oil industry is labouring under severe international sanctions, including an export ban to Europe.
The reports follows several reports that Iran has no choice but to begin shutting in oil production, after filling its repository at Kharg and having used a large proportion of its tanker fleet for offshore storage. Current production is thought to be lower than the latest OPEC figures.
Iran has warned that there will be consequences in the Strait of Hormuz if its oil production is severely threatened, though it has not looked to act on any of its bellicose rhetoric so far. Without referring to Iran, OPEC says “continued geopolitical concerns and security challenges remain major risk factors for some producing countries in 2013.”
OPEC, citing secondary sources, says Kuwait pumped 2.79 million bpd, the UAE 2.58 million bpd and Saudi 9.88 million bpd.
The producer’s club says the ‘call’ on its crude is down by 100,000 bpd since last year and OPEC expects the figue to fall by a further 300,000 bpd in 2013. The outlook puts OPEC at the pessimistic end of recent forecasts.
On the basis of the supply and demand balance, OPEC says “the projected growth in oil demand in 2013 will largely be met by incremental non-OPEC supply, indicating a comfortable market situation next year.”
The latest estimates suggest oil markets are so far able to deal with a significant withdrawal of Iranian oil.
