The global desalinated water supply will reach 54 billion m3 per year by 2020, or triple what it had been in 2008, according to a new report, Desalination’s Future Champions.
With 49% of the current world market based in Middle East countries, the report from Lux Research indicates there are good opportunities for long-term growth of the desalination industry in the region.
“Middle Eastern countries have a real opportunity to become leaders in water technology development and manufacturing, if they play their cards right,” said Michael LoCascio, the report’s author and senior analyst at Lux Research.
“Already companies like Metito are active in the MENA nations and I would expect that, as the demand for water in the region ratchets upward, domestic desalination systems integrators, engineering firms, and even home grown equipment and membranes could flourish.”
The report focuses on the technology that will dominate in the three main desalination segments: seawater; brackish and surface water; and recycling. According to Lux’s analysis, new technologies will enjoy a spurt of growth as the demand for desalinated water rises. These technologies will challenge reverse osmosis (RO), which dominated the desalination equipment market, with a 54% revenue share in 2008. However, the region will have to overcome its hesitancy about new technology to take advantage of the opportunities.
“Despite having the largest installed base of desalination infrastructure, the Middle East tends to be more hesitant than other regions to adopt new technologies,” cautioned LoCascio. “It took quite a long time for the region to begin using RO, instead of older thermal technologies. I expect that the region will also adopt alternative desalination technologies after other regions
as well.”
LoCascio sees growth opportunities in brackish water and recycling, but believes RO is now so entrenched that its variations will dominate for 20 years, with new technologies coming to market only through RO hybridisation. This factor may ease the flow of technology change in the region.
“Small-scale water producers in the Middle East will continue to turn toward reverse osmosis, coupled to advanced ultra-filtration pretreatment over the next twenty years,” said LoCascio. “They will benefit from increasing water prices coupled to lower production costs by virtue of improving membrane performance, lower membrane costs, and energy inputs that will manifest within the next few years.”
“Of particular interest are firms that build, own, and/or operate desalination facilities. Since they are technologically agnostic, these firms stand to benefit as the value of desalinated water continues to increase over the next 20 years, while the cost to produce it declines.”
LoCascio thinks the seawater desalination sector is ripe for such hybrid developments. He believes that if membranes can be optimised for forward osmosis (FO), it would allow for plant with a smaller footprint and a commensurately smaller balance of infrastructure costs.
“FO will likely enter the market through hybridisation with a core RO platform – as Modern Water is already doing. As engineering firms become more familiar and comfortable with FO technology it will eventually displace RO as the core [seawater] desalination technology,”
he said.
Expert Forecast
Forward osmosis (FO) and RO variants will win in the seawater segment. Set to grow from 10.9 billion m3/year in 2008 to 38.4 billion m3/year (or 71% of total supply) in 2020, the seawater segment could see simpler technologies, like cloud-point and ammonium carbonate FO, beat RO on energy and cost.
The brackish water segment will fragment with nine successful technologies. Increasing comparatively slowly from 6.4 billion m3/year (35% of total) in 2008 to 7.2 billion m3/year (13% of total supply) in 2020, brackish water’s widely varying operating conditions, combined with the water market’s hyper-locality will foster nine sustainable technologies.
RO will go unchallenged in recycling. The fastest-growing segment – increasing from 0.9 billion m3/year in 2008 to 8.4 billion m3/year in 2020 (16% of total supply) – the recycling market’s low energy needs and levels of brine waste minimise RO’s weaknesses, securing its dominance in the segment for decades.
