A new dawn for nuclear

The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has forecast at least 1,100 GW of nuclear capacity in operation around the world by 2060. Indeed it is possible that up to 3,500 GW will be available by then compared with around 400 GW in place today.

Most of the new capacity is expected to come from countries that already have a nuclear fleet and in some cases moratoria on new build have been overturned as countries struggle to ensure supply security and benefit from the role this clean fuel can play in meeting individual and multi-lateral greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.

Despite the current economic crisis, world energy demand is expected to continue to increase with the result that many industrialised and industrialising countries will face a supply shortfall within the next decade or so, forcing policymakers to look at all energy supply options.

China is planning to increase capacity to 40 GW by 2020 while India plans to add up to 30 new reactors within the same timeframe. The UK has recently adopted nuclear as a major part of its future energy supply strategy and wants to build four new reactors by 2025.

Global warming

Nuclear was hailed in the 1960s and 1970s as the power generation of the future but the incidents at Three Mile Island in the US and Chernobyl in Ukraine severely dented public confidence in nuclear safety.

An anti-nuclear stance was adopted by both politicians and environmentalists, although many of the latter now are struggling to reconcile their long-held opposition to nuclear given its potential role as a low carbon energy source.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, nuclear is as low-carbon a power source as wind and solar. It has estimated that the 439 operating nuclear reactors around the world save the planet from two billion extra tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, which would have been emitted had coal been used instead.

But not everyone has been won over to the nuclear cause; Leading environmental group Greenpeace remains unconvinced, arguing that nuclear’s ability to help reduce emissions is overstated and that energy efficiency, cleaner fossil fuel use and more renewables in the supply mix are the best way forward.

The group has strongly opposed UK government plans to build a new nuclear fleet, arguing that even if Britain built ten new reactors, nuclear power would only deliver a 4% cut in carbon emissions at some point after 2025.

It also claims nuclear would not be able to replace gas used for heating and hot water and for industrial purposes nor the need for oil in transportation. Greenpeace argues that nuclear’s role in changing the overall supply requirements of a country are therefore limited, pointing out that as 86% of oil and gas consumption is for purposes other than producing electricity, nuclear, which can only generate electricity, “is almost irrelevant.”

Supporters of new nuclear plant, argue that the drivers for new nuclear build have evolved considerably since the first generation of plants were justified on the basis of the need to alleviate emission from coal-fired stations and to a lesser extent as a way of reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports.

Today, the world is facing a doubling of electricity consumption by 2030, requiring new capacity, but also the replacement of ageing generation stock. At the same time, growing awareness of the dangers and effects of global warming and climate change has seen nuclear hailed as the only readily available large-scale alternative to fossil fuels.

Substantial increases in fossil fuel prices have also improved the economics of nuclear power generation, as has the cost of building a plant itself – helped in part by global co-operation schemes on plant design, operation and maintenance.
 

The ‘Generation 4 International Forum’ is a research project involving scientists from several countries who are investigating new types of reactors to improve safety and economy and also to reduce nuclear proliferation risk and assessment methodologies.

The economic case

WNA notes the nuclear industry is becoming increasingly global with three major western-Japanese alliances formed in 2006 to lead the reactor supply market: Areva with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries; General Electric with Hitachi; and Westinghouse, which has become a subsidiary of Toshiba.

Also, as carbon emission reduction programmes are encouraged through various forms of government incentives and trading schemes, the economic benefits of nuclear power will increase further, the WNA argues.

Nuclear opponents argue that the plants still require a large lead time with the decision to launch a project taking as many as 10 years. Planning for the siting of any new plant can take a long time and a drawn-out consultation process means any new capacity planned today may not be commissioned on time to meet emissions reduction targets (This argument is often used in the EU where the first legally binding emission cuts come into effect from 2020).

But the WNA claims that most reactors today are built in less than five years – even four years for state of the art plants and three years in the case of prefabrication, although it admits that several years are needed for preliminary approvals before construction can get underway.

The WNA says that in the 1980s, 218 power reactors came on-line – an average of one every 17 days. These included 47 in the US, 42 in France and 18 in Japan.

The average power was 923.5 MW. It says: “It is not hard to imagine a similar number being commissioned in a decade after about 2015,” maintains the WNA, “and with China and India getting up to speed with nuclear energy and a world energy demand double the 1980 level in 2015, a realistic estimate of what is possible might be the equivalent of one 1,000 MW unit worldwide every five days.”

Public opinion

As for public approval, the nuclear industry is sensitive to concerns given the high-profile incidents of the past but argues that current technology is safer than ever. In the case of Chernobyl, the pro-nuclear lobby points out that the design of that particular plant would never have been licensed outside the (then) Soviet Union and that global cooperation in sharing operating experience and best practices in safety culture as a result of the accident have been of benefit worldwide.

The WNA adds: “The nuclear industry’s safety record over the last 20 years is unrivalled and has helped restore public faith in nuclear power. Over this period, our operating experience has tripled, from about 4,000 reactor-years to more than 12,500 reactor years.”

But waste and decommissioning remain contentious issues and have been less easily addressed by the nuclear industry. In the UK, while there is substantial political support for new build, and according to recent polls growing public acceptance, the issue of waste – the treatment of the existing stockpile and the legacy left for future generations – both in terms of safety and who will end up paying for it – has persistently dogged government efforts to present the case for new nuclear in a positive light.

The WNA counters these concerns with reference to experience in Sweden and Finland where with “proper consultation and compensation” in the form of long-term job prospects primarily, communities are prepared to host repositories – which has led to a situation in Sweden where two communities are currently competing to be selected for a final repository site.

New reactors

Where is the new capacity being planned? China wants to add 40 GW by 2020. It has already built and commissioned eight new plants within the last five years and a further eight are under construction or due to be connected to the grid within five years. Construction of a further eight is due to start within the next few years and an additional 75 reactors have been proposed.

Japan and South Korea have plans in place for 11 and eight new plants, respectively, and both are involved in research on future reactor designs. Indonesia wants its first plant operational by 2016, and in South East Asia, Vietnam intends to have it first nuclear power plant operating in 2017.

India wants to build 20 to 30 new reactors by 2020 as part of its national energy policy. These reactors include light- and heavy water reactors as well as fast reactors. Seven power reactors are under construction – both indigenous and foreign design – including a 500 MW prototype fast breeder reactor.

This will boost India’s thorium programme which the country wants to use as feedstock – over uranium – given the quantity of this resource it has to fuel its reactors. Neighbouring Pakistan is expanding its fleet with Chinese designed reactors and wants to add 8 GW of capacity by 2030.

In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates has launched a nuclear power programme with the help of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and in collaboration with international firms, while Jordan has plans to use nuclear energy for power and desalination.

Russia is planning 40 GW of new capacity by 2025. This is going to be based on a domestic light water process. The government has prioritised construction of a large fast breeder unit while development proceeds on other plants targeting the export market. An initial floating power plant is also under construction and is scheduled for completion in 2010.

In Europe, the UK wants at least four more reactors while France and Finland are both expanding their existing fleets. Several countries in Eastern Europe are currently constructing or have firm plans to build new nuclear power plants (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey).

Italy is considering a revival of its previously abandoned nuclear programme, and via its power incumbent Enel, has already invested in reactors in Slovakia and France. Sweden has performed a nuclear U-turn and abandoned plans to prematurely decommission plants and is now investing in life extensions and upgrades. Hungary, Slovakia and Spain are all planning for life extensions on existing plants.

Germany is considering halting the phase out of its nuclear reactors; partly because it believes there is not sufficient alternative energy infrastructure in place and partly in order to meet its stringent environmental targets.  The outcome of the German debate is very much in the balance, although Chancellor Angela Merkel is in favour of halting the phase-out.

The EU supports a role for nuclear in the energy mix and has set up a joint initiative on nuclear safety, including waste disposal and decommissioning best practice. The EU sees nuclear as having an important role to play in a diversified energy supply mix.

In the US, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is currently considering 11 applications or joint construction and operating licences for 18 new nuclear power reactors while in Canada, the government of Ontario has decided to refurbish and restart four reactors – adding 25 years to operating lifetime – as a step in its plan to expand its nuclear fleet.

In June 2008 it named Darlington as the site for two large new reactors for commissioning in 2018 with a further two under discussion. The Canadian state of Alberta is reportedly considering using nuclear power to extract oil from the province’s vast deposits of oil sands.

In South America, Argentina and Brazil – both of which have existing capacity – are planning new reactors while Chile has a research facility underway with a view to commercialisation.

Meanwhile, South Africa is assessing plans for a third conventional nuclear power unit. Nigeria has also consulted the IAEA on plans for two 1,000 MW reactors, and Egypt has revived plans for a combined nuclear power and desalination plant in co-operation with Russia companies.

With this kind of momentum, it is no surprise that the nuclear industry is  upbeat. But with increased activity in nuclear research around the world the role of the IAEA remains crucial, particularly with regard to proliferation.

At its general conference in October it noted that nuclear power represents the largest mitigation potential at the lowest average cost in the energy supply sector – and referred to the need for oversight of nuclear infrastructure for several newcomers to the industry. The IAEA also plans measures to strengthen cooperation in radiation and transport safety and in waste management.

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