Global decarbonisation pathways offered by oil giants BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Equinor will not limit the average warming to 1.5°C, new research published by Climate Analytics warns.
The peer-reviewed paper analyzed six institutional scenarios between 2020 and mid-2021, two of which were from BP, one from Shell, one from Equinor and two developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Of all those assessed, only the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 scenario was found to be compatible with the criteria for consistency with the Paris Agreement’s goals, the study found.
Robert Brecha, a co-lead author of the study, said that most of the scenarios evaluated would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement and would exceed the 1.5ºC warming limit by a significant margin.
Additionally, the study showed that the oil majors’ decarbonisation trajectories offer only a 66% or more chance of limiting global warming below 2°C.
Transparency in climate goals
Even though the world’s top oil and gas companies have set varying targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they have been constantly under fire from policymakers and environmentalists for not doing enough to combat climate change.
Bill Hare, CEO and senior scientist at Climate Analytics, said the findings showed that fossil fuel majors were using their own scenarios to justify continued production of fossil fuels
“Fossil fuel companies claim that we can continue to burn oil and gas while keeping to the 1.5°C warming limit, and they cite their own scenarios as justification,” he said. “But our research shows that their pathways would bust the Paris Agreement. Even temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C warming would lead to catastrophic impacts and severely weaken our ability to adapt to climate change.”
Norewgian oil firm Equinor, which is gearing up to publish its latest global energy and climate scenarios report, set out its latest climate progress report earlier this year, highlighting its aim of achieving net zero by 2050.
National oil companies in the Middle East are also stepping up efforts to address climate goals. Egypt and the UAE will host the COP27 and COP 28 conferences in the next two years, which is expected to kickstart clean energy initiatives and drive international investment into the Arab World’s renewable energy ambitions.
