Highlights from the IEA’s recent Oil Market Report.
After surging to a nine?month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent on 19 June in the wake of the ISIS offensive in Iraq, oil prices quickly retraced their gains in late June and early July, with Brent slipping below $108/bbl and the Brent futures curve flipping into contango, indicative of a more relaxed, well?supplied market. The supply worries that had sparked last month’s rally have since abated somewhat, but that is only part of the story. Market concerns also appear to have shifted to demand, with both product deliveries and refinery throughputs showing signs, perhaps short?lived, of counter?seasonal softness.
On the supply front, markets appear to have taken comfort in Iraq’s ability so far to maintain stable levels of exports and production in the midst of a brutal sectarian conflict. At the same time, news that rebels in eastern Libya had lifted a months?long blockade of the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider terminals raised hopes that long?disrupted Libyan exports may soon ramp up. Production patterns in Saudi Arabia, which in the last two years has been prompt to respond to upward and downward shifts in global crude demand, suggest that crude markets are already well supplied. Contrary to seasonal patterns, the Kingdom barely hiked production in June, a sign that demand for its crude may not have significantly increased.
? Oil futures surged in mid?June by $5/bbl to a nine?month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent as Islamist forces gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed their gains on confidence that Baghdad’s southern fields would remain untouched and improved prospects for a recovery in Libyan exports. Brent last traded at $108/bbl, WTI at $102/bbl.
? OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 mb/d, as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The ‘call’ on OPEC for 2H14 was cut by 350 kb/d to 30.6 mb/d on improved non?OPEC supply and lower demand, and is forecast to dip to 29.8 mb/d in 2015 from 29.9 mb/d in 2014.
? Non?OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2015, down slightly on 2013 and 2014 forecast levels. Global supplies were largely unchanged month?on?month in June, at 92.6 mb/d, but 995 kb/d higher than a year ago. Annual non?OPEC output growth of 1.7 mb/d more than offset OPEC declines of 765 kb/d.
? Global oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.4 mb/d in 2015 from 1.2 mb/d in 2014, as macroeconomic conditions improve. The estimate of 2014 demand has been trimmed by 130 kb/d to 92.7 mb/d following weaker?than?expected mid?year economic data.Â
? Global refinery crude runs dipped below year?earlier levels in June, for the first time since October. Planned and unplanned outages, capacity rationalisation and weak margins cut runs by 0.9 mb/d on the year, to 76.8 mb/d. The 2Q14 estimate has been lowered by 0.3 mb/d, to 76.2 mb/d, while the 3Q14 forecast is unchanged, at 77.8 mb/d
? OECD commercial oil inventories built by a steeper?than?usual 44.2 mb in May, to 2 639 mb. Their deficit to the five?year average narrowed to 69.6 mb from a revised 106.1 mb at end?April. Refined products covered 29.0 days of demand at end?May, up 0.4 days on the month. Preliminary data show that OECD stocks rose by 8.3 mb in June.
