OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2019 forecasts energy demand to grow by 72mboed in the period until 2040, when demand will hit 357mboed.
Meanwhile, non-OECD countries will see demand grow by 75mboed for the same period, while demand in the OECD will drop by 3mboed. China and India will make up approximately 50% of energy demand growth for non-OECD countries.
“These regional demand growth differences relate to variances in demographics, efficiency levels, climate change policies and other factors that shape the energy mix in various countries and regions,” the report noted.
Oil will continue to hold the highest share of the energy mix in 2040, at 28%. In 2018, oil accounted for more than 31% of global energy demand, followed by coal (27%) and gas (23%).
While natural gas is not expected to overtake oil in the forecast period, it will grow from 65.6mboed to 90mboed, becoming the second-largest energy source with 25% of the energy mix. Demand for gas will primarily grow in Asia and OPEC member countries. Renewables will see growth of around 6.9% between 2018 and 2040.
Despite an anticipated drop in coal demand after 2030, OPEC expects this hydrocarbon to remain the largest source of CO2 emissions.
“[Coal] is estimated to account for almost 40%, or 14.9bn tonnes (bt), of total energy-related emissions in 2040,” the report noted. “Energy-related emissions will continue to increase to more than 38 bt by 2040, which is more than 4 bt higher than the observed level in 2018.”
